The paper proposes a approach for constructing a statistical model for the distribution of a small-sized fraction of space debris in near-earth space, based on a particular model of the evolution of objects of a small-sized fraction of space debris. An algorithm for predicting the evolution of objects of small-sized fraction of space debris formed as a result of the destruction of the parent space object over a long time interval is described, as well as a system of equations in variations for mass calculations and statistical estimates of the parameters of the distribution of space debris in near-earth space. At a time interval of 10 years, calculations were carried out to obtain a common understanding of the evolution and lifetime of fragments of space debris ranging in size from 0.01 to 1 mm in the orbits of real groups and individual spacecraft. The time of existence of objects of small-sized fraction of space debris of the specified sizes depending on the parameters of the orbit and the value of their area-to-mass ratio is determined.

space object, orbital parameters, model of space debris distribution

Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technics

Borovin Gennady Konstantinovich,  ,  orcid.org/0000-0002-7942-9613,  KIAM RAS

Zakhvatkin Mikhail Vitalyevich,  ,  orcid.org/0000-0002-0900-5786,  KIAM RAS

Stepaniants Victor Arkadievich,  ,  orcid.org/0000-0002-2548-1539,  KIAM RAS

Usovik Igor Vyacheslavovich,  ,  TSHNIIMASH; MAI(NRU); PFUR; RISR RAS