Macroeconomic model M-20 is a one-product simulation and expert model that reflects the dynamics of reproduction of the global economy's GDP, built on the basis of the Russian economy model P1-4.0 (2019-1). Formally, the model parameters are a combination of some “main trend” and “interference”, and the “interference” is simulated at a certain “historical” interval, and only the “main trends” are used on the forecast interval. Thus, the forecast is an estimate of the average values that satisfy the balance ratios and regression dependencies. The model is based on official international reporting on the national accounting system and uses expert hypotheses about the relationship of various parameters.

general information of SNA, balance equations, metrization of indicators, fundamental characteristics of the economy, model equation list

Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technics

Antipov Valeriy Ivanovich,  ,  Institute of Control Sciences V.A. Trapeznikov Academy of Sciences

Mitin Nikolay Alexeevich,  ,  orcid.org/0000-0001-7890-6353,  KIAM RAS

Paschenko Fedor Fedorovich,  Institute of Control Sciences V.A. Trapeznikov Academy of Sciences