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KIAM Preprint № 45, Moscow, 2008
Authors: Antipov V.I., Gracheva I.I., Ototsky P.L.
Long-term Russian demography forecast
Abstract:
Three methods considered for forecasting the population dynamics of Russia in the range 2005-2105. First method is based on the general demographic indicators. Illustrated that compensation of the depopulation is possible only by external migration. Second method is based on cohort analysis (age-groups population differentiation considered). It is shown that current migration inflow is badly insufficient. Third method replace whole population with two groups with different demography indicators. Conclusion is break of depopulation due to rapid growth of groups with high birth-rate. The forecast compared with similar long-term forecasts of population dynamics of Russia: A) Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, 2005-2025 B) Institute of Demography HSE, 2000-2050 C) United Nations, 2000-2100 Discussed the requirements to official statistical information.
Publication language: russian,  pages: 23
Research direction:
Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technics
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About authors:
  • Antipov V.I.
  • Gracheva I.I.
  • Ototsky P.L.