Mathematical modeling of the speed of the process of spreading viral disease COVID-19 in the conditions of megacities
Abstract:
As the main result of this study, a scheme is proposed to describe the process of the spread of COVID-19 disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus through the territory of the city of Moscow. As a hypothesis for the creation of the scheme, an idea is put forward based on the currently proven mechanism of the spread of viruses in the form of aerosols during the breathing of sick people. The proposed mathematical model includes functionals that allow you to control the processes of the decline of the epidemic situation. The developed scheme can be useful for city governing bodies to make decisions on the elimination of the epidemic situation. As suggestions for improving the situation of residents, some factors arising from the analysis of the equations of mathematical models are discussed.
Keywords:
the distribution speed, the territory of the city, non-stationary time series, viral diseases, stochastic processes
Publication language:russian, pages:15
Research direction:
Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technics
