Modified macroeconomic simulation model of Russia's development
Abstract:
P1-4.0(2018-1) is a modification of single-product simulation and expert model that reflects the dynamics of reproduction GDR of the Russian economy in 1995-2030. The parameters of the model are a combination of some 'main trend' and 'interference'. 'Interference' is simulated in the 'historical' period 1995-2015, and in the forecast period (2016-2030) only 'major trends' are used. So, prediction is a evaluation of the average value that satisfy balance ratios and regression dependencies. The model is based on Rosstat’s official reporting on the SNA system since 1995 and uses hypotheses of experts on the relationship of various parameters.
Keywords:
general information of SNA, balance equations, metrization of indicators, fundamental characteristics of the economy, model equation list
Publication language:russian, pages:36
Research direction:
Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technics
