At present in Russian Federation the Federal Special Program “Risk Reduction” is carried out. They entrust RAS institutes a part of investigations in frame of this program. At Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics RAS they carries out a part of the work concerned with creating the experiment stand of National scientific system to monitor perilous events, phenomena and processes in nature, man-caused and social spheres. In particular a system analysis of different types’ catastrophes and disasters is carried out. The present work is devoted to the actual for Russia problem of forest conflagrations. At last years in Russia forest conflagrations made up a great part of emergency situations caused by perilous processes in nature. In the work we studied a natural conflagration statistics for 2005-2007 and carried out an analysis of natural conflagration extinguishing system (NCES) in Russia. In present work we focus a main attention to analysis of NCES’s organization in Russia, existing informational streams, dynamics of conflagration arising in dependence on time and evaluation of prejudice from such kind of natural catastrophes.

Mathematical modelling in actual problems of science and technics