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Conference material: "Proceedings of the 4th International Conference “Futurity designing. Digital reality problems” (February 4-5, 2021, Moscow)"
Authors: Podlazov A.V.
Reconstruction of falsified election results using Shpilkin integral method
Abstract:
I propose a simple and formal method to reconstruct falsified election results, based on the hypothesis of the mutual independence of the overall turnout and the result of power. This method is a development of the classical method of S.A. Shpilkin, however, it does not require additional assumptions and has no free parameters. In addition, it uniformly reconstructs all key values and uses a simpler and clearer mathematical procedure. Comparison of official and true results of federal elections allows to perform a political science analysis of the development of the institution of electoral frauds in Russia in the 20th century and its impact on the political system.
Keywords:
elections, frauds, electoral statistics, big data, reconstruction, inverse problems, regression analysis
Publication language: russian,  pages: 16 (p. 193-208)
Russian source text:
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About authors:
  • Podlazov Andrey Viktorovich,  orcid.org/0000-0002-0328-3814KIAM RAS