Conference material: "Proceedings of the 4th International Conference “Futurity designing. Digital reality problems” (February 4-5, 2021, Moscow)"
Authors:Kurkina E.S., Koltsova E.M.
Mathematical modeling and forecasting of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic
In this paper, using the Feigenbaum logistic map, mathematical modeling of the spread of waves of the coronavirus epidemic in different countries is carried out. It is shown that the chosen model is optimal for describing the complex dynamics of the spread of infections in open, heterogeneous systems with inaccurately specified statistical data. A method for detecting local epidemic waves and determining the model parameters has been developed. It is shown that the model makes it possible to describe statistical data well and make realistic forecasts. The model is used to model the total number of cases, the total number of deaths, recoveries, and the calculation of active cases.
mathematical modeling, COVID-19 epidemic, open systems, logistic map, superposition of epidemiological waves, forecasting